Preseason camp is officially over. Florida State closed it Saturday with a mock game inside Doak Campbell Stadium, the final item on Mike Norvell's camp checklist after a speed day, and this morning the Seminoles flip the calendar to game week. New Mexico State comes to town Saturday, Aug. 29, for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff on The CW, the first meeting ever between the two programs. Norvell's first game-week press conference is Monday. The countdown that started back in March is down to six days.
Nobody expects drama on the scoreboard. ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Seminoles a 97.1 percent chance to win, and the betting market has settled around FSU -28.5 with a total near 53.5. Treat those numbers as context, not gospel, but they tell you what this game is. With SMU due at Doak nine days later for a Labor Day night kickoff on ESPN, the opener functions as a dress rehearsal with a live audience. So what does a genuinely good night look like?
Start with the quarterback. Ashton Daniels makes his first start as QB1 when it counts, and the fifth-year from Buford, Ga., by way of Stanford and Auburn, has earned the runway. He won the job out of spring against Kevin Sperry, drew Norvell's warmest review of camp after the second scrimmage ("He's done a really good job"), and got the call to break the rock when camp closed Saturday. A good night for Daniels has nothing to do with a 350-yard box score. It's the ball out on time, two or three real shots downfield to Duce Robinson, who is coming off a 1,000-yard season, and no moments where he tries to win the game by himself. If he's wearing a ball cap by the fourth quarter, the plan worked.
The run game should be the engine. Ousmane Kromah is the returning starter, the back who won the job as a true freshman and is still first on the depth chart. Behind him it is still an or. Tre Wisner, the Texas transfer, and Samuel Singleton Jr. are both in that second-back mix, and camp has not settled which one is 2 and which one is 3. A good night is Kromah setting the tone early and the other two getting enough real work that the staff can keep using both. September is long, and carries saved now are carries available at Clemson in October.
Defensively, boring is beautiful. Tony White's second-year group has been the steady story of camp, and the transfer class is a big reason why. Rylan Kennedy brings edge rush, Chris Jones has been a tackle machine at linebacker since arriving from Southern Miss, and Mandrell and Darryll Desir give the front real length. Ja'Bril Rawls is healthy at corner. Against an overmatched opponent the goals are unglamorous. Line up right, tackle in space, win third down, and get the second unit a full half of meaningful snaps. The pre-snap busts that burned this defense a year ago can't show up Saturday, because the same mistakes are fatal Sept. 19 in Tuscaloosa.
There's a roster subplot worth tracking too. Norvell said last week he wanted players still fighting for depth-chart spots to get their shot in the final preseason practices, and the staff had already been folding about 15 minutes of New Mexico State sequencing into practice before game week officially began, per the Tallahassee Democrat. Translation: the back half of the two-deep is still being written, and Saturday's second half is a live audition for it. One name you won't see is freshman defensive lineman Cam Brooks, whose Achilles injury in July will cost him most of his first season.
The most telling snap of the night might be the first third down. Watch how quickly Daniels gets the offense to the line and whether the ball comes out on schedule. This staff has been repping New Mexico State looks for two weeks, 15 minutes at a time. If the first drive looks like it, the rest of the night tends to take care of itself.
Sources: Seminoles.com, ESPN, Tallahassee Democrat (Aug. 20), Tallahassee Democrat (Aug. 17), 247Sports. The Nole Wire is not credentialed on-site.